Less than half of the 22,400 units have been delivered in Dubai by mid-year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Mena research head.

JLL Mena had expected a total number of 22,400 units to be delivered by mid-year in 2009.

"It is quite difficult to ascertain the actual number, but according to our survey less than half of the units have been delivered by mid year," Craig Plumb, Head of Research at Jones Lang LaSalle Mena told Emirates Business.

In February, the Real Estate Regulatory Agency said 31,003 and 43,880 units were set to enter the market in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

However, its studies and research section had identified that 20 per cent of residential units will not enter the market on time in 2009, while 40 per cent of the residential units may be delayed in 2010. A report from US investment bank JP Morgan said Dubai was likely to see a surplus of 31,000 residential units mainly due to the decline in the expatriate population.

According to Plumb, it would be the future supply of properties and employment opportunities generated in Dubai that would determine the revival time for the market.

"There are a lot of factors that affect the real estate market, but the prime ones are future supply of units and population growth and shrinkage."

In a report published last week, the Ministry of Economy report said the UAE's population will exceed five million for the first time by year-end.

The bulk of the increase of nearly 300,000 people will be in the expatriate community while Dubai is projected to maintain its status as the most populated emirate in the UAE for the second year running, said the report.

However, in March, EFG- Hermes predicted Dubai's population to shrink by 17 per cent in 2009 as foreign workers lose their jobs and head home. Earlier Swiss bank UBS had estimated a drop of eight per cent.

He reiterated that Dubai's property market was expected to see a rebound in 2011 after stabilising in 2010.

JLL on Sunday had said: "There has been a convergence between asking and achieved prices" with the gap narrowing to around seven per cent in second quarter.

Asked if the gap would increase further in the third quarter, Plumb said: "It has stabilised. The gap between the asking and achieved prices will stay in the range of five and seven per cent."

Plumb expects transaction volumes in Dubai to remain "stable" and not fall below the second-quarter mark.

"We expect the third quarter to be stable, but see an increase in the fourth quarter."

According to JLL, rents have declined by 15 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter and "will fall further" in the third quarter.

"The rent decline has been consistent for a couple of months. Some people believe that we have reached the bottom, but we expect rents to fall further in the third quarter," said Plumb.

Earlier this month, Dubai-based Landmark Advisory said average apartment rents fell by 29 per cent in the second quarter since their peak in the fourth quarter of 2008, while year-on-year rents for villa and apartment fell by 19 and 12 per cent, respectively.

Source: Emirates Business 24/7